WEST MONROE, LA (02/09/20) Happy Sunday! It’s been a mostly dry day across the ArkLaMiss, with noticeably warmer temperatures as well. We’ve seen some scattered showers and storms so far.
Tonight (Sunday through early Monday): We have been placed under a Marginal (1/5) risk of severe weather to account for mainly a damaging hail threat. Gusty winds and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well. Scattered storms will develop to our west and southwest, continuing through the night and into Monday morning. While some will be capable of heavy rain, the main rain event starts later Monday.
Monday: We maintain a Marginal (1/5) risk of severe weather through the day as showers and thunderstorms slowly become more widespread. Again, the main threat will be damaging hail, but damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two will be possible. As showers and thunderstorms train over the same areas throughout the day, this is when the threat for flash flooding and localized flooding in general will become more of an issue. Showers and storms will congeal into a large cluster/line later Monday, with intensity slowly backing off as we head into Tuesday.
Tuesday: Showers and storms will taper to rain that continues through the day. Severe weather does not look possible on this day, but flooding issues will remain.
Wednesday: The final, strongest system of this parade of systems moves in. The atmosphere will be able to quickly reset over the ArkLaMiss, posing a threat of severe weather all day Wednesday (starting during the morning, continuing through the evening). The placement of the parent low and it’s ingredients look to favor the possibility of widespread severe weather. Right now, a good chunk of the ArkLaMiss is under a Slight (2/5) risk, with some of our river parishes under an Enhanced (3/5) risk, with the greatest risk off towards the east. All modes of severe weather appear possible, and if trends continue, wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the Enhanced risk placed over more of our counties/parishes.
Thursday: We start to dry out, and the weather takes a temporary break until more showers and storms return for Saturday into Sunday…. but details on that event will have to wait for now.
The main takeaways from this; Monday-Wednesday are going to be busy weather days. The most widespread impact over the next few days will be flooding rains. Remember, if you encounter a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN! You cannot see the road below you and barricades are there to save your life, not inconvenience your day!
Severe weather-wise, Wednesday is certainly a day to keep an eye on, so make sure you’re paying attention to the forecast as details will continued to be fine tuned. Make sure you have a plan in place for Wednesday, and have multiple ways of receiving alerts. Stay safe and dry out there!