WEST MONROE, La. — (2/16/2022 | 12:35 PM) Strong southerly winds continue to usher more humid air into place across the ArkLaMiss. Overall, the general details of the forecast remain in place ahead of a cold front and isolated severe weather potential tomorrow. While risk areas have become clearer, it doesn’t change the general set up that we expect for storms tomorrow.
WHAT HAS CHANGED:
- The timing of this storm system through our area continues to waffle back and forth slightly. A few hours, for this particular event, makes a big difference. An earlier system will likely be greeted by a more stable environment, thus limiting severe potential on a larger scale. A slower system could take advantage of some morning warmth, combined with an extremely strong wind field in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere… providing a better environment for storms in our area.
- The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather for much of the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys. While this does include a sliver of our viewing area, the bulk of this heightened threat is likely to remain to our east.
WHAT HAS NOT CHANGED:
- Isolated damaging wind gusts remain our primary concern with any severe storms that can develop in our environment. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, especially given the strong winds that will be in place.
- Atmospheric instability in our particular area still looks quite weak tomorrow. This should limit the overall scope and coverage of severe storm potential. We are not expecting an outbreak of severe storms in our area.
- The severe threat is likely to end by early afternoon along the Mississippi River. Skies will clear, with much cooler air for Friday.
- Viewers/residents are still encouraged to stay up to date with the latest forecast information as the forecast is refined through the next 24 hours.
Previous information issued on this severe weather potential can be found below.
Weather forecasts change frequently. Some information from previous updates may be outdated.
WEST MONROE, La. — (2/15/2022 | 11:15 AM) A cold front will bring severe storm potential back to the ArkLaMiss early Thursday.
Moisture return will increase across the area Wednesday on the back of a strong, consistent southerly wind near the surface. Dewpoint temperatures are likely to return to near 60° by the end of the day Wednesday.
A strong upper level disturbance will be ejecting northeastward through the central U.S. by early Thursday morning. Its accompanying cold front will accelerate through the ArkLaMiss late Thursday morning through early afternoon. While atmospheric instability may be somewhat limited, strong wind shear will likely allow for some storms to become severe.
WHAT IS POSSIBLE: All modes of severe weather are possible. Given the strong winds in place, the threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be present. Areas of large hail can’t be ruled out, but should remain isolated. Periods of heavy rain will also be possible, especially with the strongest storms. Given the dry soil conditions, storm-driven rains could run off quickly… causing some localized street flooding issues.
WHEN IS IT POSSIBLE: The latest data indicates a slightly later arrival time for best storm potential in our area, considering the front now appears to move through during the late morning/early afternoon. Storms could still develop as early as 7-9am in the western counties/parishes. Any severe threat is likely to end along the Mississippi River by 3pm. This puts the best window of storm potential generally between 10am-2pm.
WHERE IS IT POSSIBLE: Ingredients for severe weather appear to favor most of the ArkLaMiss. This doesn’t mean that the entire area will see severe weather; however, the environment will be somewhat conducive for severe storms in any given area. Everyone should stay aware to changing conditions in their area, and be prepared to act if a warning is issued.
Overall, this is not expected to be a widespread outbreak of storms… but, conditions will be at least somewhat favorable for severe development.
Have multiple ways of receiving severe weather alerts through the day on Thursday. Download the KTVE/KARD Weather App available on iTunes and Google Play. The latest forecast and severe weather outlooks can also be found here on MyArkLaMiss.com/extra. We’ll continue to keep you updated on this scenario as the forecast is refined over the coming days.