WEST MONROE, La. — (3/20/2022) A significant severe weather threat is likely to develop across multiple states over multiple days through the early half of this week. Severe storms are expected across parts of the ArkLaMiss as part of this possible severe weather event.
A strong Spring storm system will develop across the western United States on Monday. Warm, humid hair will stream across the Gulf coast states early this week in advance of this system, and its accompanying cold front. Strong low-level and mid-level winds will create an environment favorable for all modes of severe weather… including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.
Who (Threat Areas)
While strong wind shear will be present across most of the central and southern United States, instability will be somewhat more limited. It’s typical for severe weather ingredients to vary, and storms can still thrive in this “low instability, high shear” environment. As mentioned in the video above, the best window for ArkLaMiss storms has pushed beyond Monday into early Tuesday; thus, most of the area stays out of the Day 2 (Monday/early Tuesday) threat.
With instability remaining limited farther northward (across southern Arkansas), a severe risk will develop… but, it’s likely to stay more isolated in nature.
As we move deeper into the day Tuesday, the severe weather threat is likely increase… especially south of I-20, where the most favorable ingredients will develop. The favorable environment in place will support the potential for significant severe weather, including the risk for strong tornadoes.
Isolated severe storms could develop as early as the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday, especially in the western half of the ArkLaMiss. The best window of severe weather potential in our area will be aided by daytime heating, between 9am and 3pm. The time frame could easily move a few hours in either direction, depending on storm development. While that appears to be the best window for storms, severe storms could still easily develop outside of this window in a more isolated sense.
All modes of severe weather will be possible. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible in any storms that become severe. Large hail, up to golf ball sized, will be possible. Low-level wind shear will also favor the potential for tornadoes, a few of which could be strong.
As storms develop along the front through the day, periods of heavy rain are also likely. Given the recent rains across the area, flash flooding will be possible. In total, many areas could see 2-4″ of rain. Localized spots of up to 5″ of rain will be possible.
How (can I be Prepared?)
Severe weather is common in the ArkLaMiss through March and April. It shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone. Here’s a few things to remember:
- The forecast will continue to change as threat areas become better recognized, and additional forecast data becomes available. Stay up to date with the latest information, as it becomes available.
- Have multiple ways of receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are a wonderful investment. Download the KTVE/KARD weather app available on iTunes and Google Play. You can receive customized alerts based on your location.
- Review your severe weather plan with your family. Make sure everyone knows where to go and what to do if a warning is issued for your area.
- Know how to spot your area on a map. Be familiar with nearby towns, roads, and landmarks.
- This is likely to be a regional severe weather event. Let friends/family across the Gulf coast states (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama) know about this week’s severe weather potential.
We’ll continue to update you on this severe weather potential as the forecast changes over the next hours and days.