WEST MONROE, La. — (5/4/2022) An advancing cold front and upper-level disturbance will bring potential for strong to severe storms across the ArkLaMiss Thursday afternoon/evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, large hail, and heavy rainfall.
WHO (could see severe weather?)
Storms are likely to develop ahead of the cold front during the late morning hours across eastern Texas. With ample moisture and heating through the day, the most favorable ingredients for severe storms will remain across the western half of the viewing area.
Severe storms will also be possible across the remainder of the viewing area farther south and east, but coverage of those storms may become more limited as the front slows through the day.
A secondary corridor of severe storms may develop later in the evening. Most of that activity is likely to stay south of our area, but an isolated severe storm could develop across our far southern parishes up until around midnight.
WHAT (types of severe of severe weather?)
As mentioned earlier, all modes of severe weather will be possible (damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, hail, heavy rain).
- Damaging winds | This is likely the greatest threat with storms as they develop tomorrow. By early afternoon, a large cluster or squall line of storms is likely to develop and advance eastward. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible within that line.
- Tornadoes | While a tornado threat exists, wind profiles near the surface won’t necessarily favor tornado development. Any tornadoes we see tomorrow are likely to be embedded within the line as it moves through. Embedded tornadoes aren’t necessarily weak, but can form quickly.
- Hail | Some isolated instances of large hail will be possible. Hail could range from non-severe (pea to dime sized) to severe (quarter to golf ball sized).
- Heavy Rain | As the front slows, showers and storms are likely to slow, too. Some areas could see a quick 1-2″ of rain (with locally higher amounts) through Thursday evening.
WHEN (can we expect storms to arrive?)
The greatest threat for severe storms will likely be with a developing line that will move from the ArkLaTex into the ArkLaMiss by around midday. Severe storms could be possible as early as noon to 2pm in the western counties/parishes. Those storms will continue eastward through early evening across the central sections of the ArkLaMiss, likely weakening by early evening (5-7pm), although an isolated severe threat could linger beyond this time.
As mentioned earlier, a secondary area of strong to severe storms is possible to our south… but, a few storms could impact our southern parishes. That threat will linger from 7pm until around midnight.
HOW (can I be prepared?)
We’ve seen numerous severe weather threats over the last several weeks, and in terms of overall thinking in the forecast… this is no different.
- Review your emergency kit. Make sure, in the event of a disaster, that you have fresh batteries to power radios and other devices. Have food and fresh water for everyone in your home for at least three days. Make sure all necessary medications are refilled.
- Discuss your severe weather plan with your family. Make sure everyone knows where to go if a warning is issued. Remind everyone to act quickly when a warning is issued, and remain calm.
- Have multiple ways of receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios and the KTVE/KARD Weather App are ideal ways to hear and receive warnings. Also, make sure that WEAs (wireless emergency alerts) are enabled on your phone. Everyone should have three reliable ways to receive severe weather information.
- Secure loose outdoor objects. Bring in all outdoor items that can be tossed by strong winds (trash cans, decorations, outdoor furniture). If items can’t be brought inside, make attempts to secure them as much as possible.
- Clear all drainage areas. Soils across the region remain quite saturated. Periods of heavy rain could cause isolated street/flash flooding. Do your part to give rainwater the opportunity to drain properly.
- Keep devices charged. Severe storms occasionally cause power outages. Additionally, Wednesday’s extended severe threat could slow power restoration efforts. Make sure you have ways of receiving information if this becomes an issue.
- Know where you are on a map. When watches/warnings are issued, you’ll need to act quickly. This may seem elementary to some, but it’s very important. Make sure you’re familiar with nearby towns, roads, highways, and points of interest.
Residents are urged to have the most updated weather information, as it becomes available. Additional forecasts, graphics, outlooks, and more can be found here. We’ll continue to keep you updated with the latest information on-air and online.