WEST MONROE, La. — (3/16/2022) The prolonged dry, quiet pattern that has been interrupted by brief periods of rain over the last few weeks will be further disrupted by the potential for severe storms multiple times over the next week. An active upper level pattern will bring showers and storms back in across the ArkLaMiss. Here’s a break down:
Thursday Night/Friday Morning
A deepening upper level disturbance will move through the southern United States starting late Thursday. While moisture return will be somewhat limited, storms are expected to develop late Thursday night… carrying into our area through early Friday morning.
While the potential for surface-based storms appears limited, some elevated storms are expected. The biggest concern for our area is marginally severe hail. For this particular system, the threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes in our area appears quite low. Periods of heavy rainfall will also be possible. Storms should exit the region by sunrise Friday morning.
Monday/Tuesday (March 21/22)
A powerful storm system is expected to develop across the western United States early next week. Winds aloft will be quite strong. Warm, humid, unstable air is likely to overtake much of the Gulf coast states ahead of a possible multiple-state, multiple-day severe weather threat. Details are still sketchy, considering this scenario is still almost a week away.
Strong mid-level winds will develop near the base of this trough late Monday. Thunderstorms are likely, and some of those will likely be severe. All modes of severe weather will be possible… damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. For most of Monday, the severe weather threat will stay focused to our west. As the trough starts to progress eastward, that severe threat will likely move into our area late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. At this point, general thinking is that the threat would be somewhat isolated given the more limited ingredients of severe potential through the nighttime hours.
Storms are likely to redevelop (or re-intensify) with daytime heating through the day on Tuesday, bringing a more organized severe weather threat to the entire ArkLaMiss. Again, damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail will all likely be possible.
To recap, here’s what is possible over the next week:
- Isolated severe storms are possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Hail is the primary risk. Storms end around sunrise Friday.
- Multiple severe weather threats could develop early next week (Monday/Tuesday). Damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail will all be possible.
- Greatest threat appears to be next Tuesday for the entire area.
These outlooks, today’s forecast, and more can be found right here.
March in the ArkLaMiss is always produces severe weather potential. This isn’t a surprise. Residents are urged to monitor the latest weather forecasts and review their severe weather plan with their family.
We will continue to keep you updated on-air and online as severe weather season becomes more active across the ArkLaMiss.