WEST MONROE, La. (KTVE/KARD) — Hurricane Season officially starts tomorrow, June 1st, 2023, but that doesn’t mean mother nature won’t try for an early start.
Disturbance 1, which can potentially develop into a disturbance is located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Florida regardless of whether it develops further.
This area of low pressure is expected to develop slowly, if at all. Within the next 2 days (48 hours), it has a low 20% chance of development. The National Hurricane Center now uses the extended outlook of 7 days, previously being 5 days. Within the next 7 days, it also has a low 20% chance of development.
Over the next 2 days, when the most development is expected models are in slight disagreement on the environment the low is entering. The overall consensus is that the environment the low will be entering will be mostly unfavorable, with high wind shear in the area it will be difficult for the low to develop more than a tropical depression.
As stated previously, although it is not a named system it will still bring heavy rain to Florida, southern Alabama, and southern Georgia potentially. It can also produce gusty winds, which could be stronger if the low further develops.
The National Hurricane Center’s 2023 outlook has predicted that this year’s Hurricane Season will be “near-normal”, which is the average, with a 30% chance of being below and above the average. This entails 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 of them becoming hurricanes, and 1 to 4 of them becoming major storms.
Start preparing for Hurricane Season sooner rather than later, don’t wait until there is a named storm at your door.