West Monroe, LA – (04/03/22)

Skies remaining clear through the day as highs reached the upper 70s and lower 80s in many locations. Skies stay mostly clear overnight, but clouds will increase as we move into Monday morning. Lows falling to the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Most of Monday will be pleasant with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the lower 80s. Storms return late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Most activity looks to be after midnight on Monday. Severe weather potential remains for this time frame.

Some lingering clouds and showers as conditions clear into Tuesday evening. Wednesday will feature a cold front pushing through the area and allow for a cooler second half of the week.

Sunshine remains for the end of the week and weekend. The long range forecast looks to have a well defined warming trend. This pattern should set in through the weekend and potentially carry us through next week. This is how things looks as of now.

Severe Weather Potential

Late Monday (04/04) – Early Tuesday (04/05)

Potential Timing

Showers and thunderstorms look to approach the area late Monday night and linger through Tuesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms arrive potentially late Monday, ahead of a cluster of storms looking to approach western portions of our area just after midnight. That cluster of storms pushes east through the early hours on Tuesday. Near daybreak, the main cluster looks to push east as trailing thunderstorms linger for areas further south. Expect some changes as we move towards late night on Monday.

Potential Hazards

As of now, our area is mostly covered by an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) and a slight risk (level 2 of 5), as issued by the Storm Prediction Center.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

All severe weather hazards remain possible, but as this cluster of storms surges east, our main concern is the potential for damaging straight line winds and tornadoes. With that being said, large hail is still possible and of concern. Future Tracker shows the possibility of hail through late Monday and early Tuesday (shown below).

Baron 3k Hail Probability – Shows the probability of hail through portions of Mon. night and Tue. morning

Potential Ingredients

What ingredients do we have to work with? I’m glad you asked. Moisture will fill back in through Monday as temperatures will be very warm and above average. Both of these factors will help severe potential. While timing looks to be overnight, during the “more stable” hours of the day, storms may be able to overcome the timing limitations.

Below is a screenshot of the Future Tracker Energy Helicity Index, which displays favorable areas for severe weather based on storm energy and the wind environment. As storm energy increases and the wind environment becomes more favorable for severe storms, the higher the EHI numbers go. This image shows the severe storm potential as storms are moving into the area.

Severe Storm Potential (Energy Helicity Index) – Shows severe storm potential based on storm energy and the wind envrionment.

On Monday, we will look at some final details and have the most up to date information. In the meantime, don’t forget to have a way of receiving severe weather alerts. With the timing of storms overnight, it is imperative that you have a way of being alerted!