West Monroe, LA – (04/10/22)
Yet another windy day with winds out of the south at 15-20mph sustained and gusting near 30mph. The strong gulf moisture return we be with us to start the week.
Winds will stay breezy 10-20 mph overnight with some stronger gusts possible. Lows stay very moderate in the lower 60s as cloud increase into daybreak. Rain chances overnight are at 20% with possibility for some isolated showers.
Mostly cloudy to start Monday with some sun possible for the late afternoon. Winds stay moderate 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph. An isolated severe storm is possible for the far northeastern extent of our DMA, in southwest Arkansas. The rest of the Arklamiss could see an isolated shower or storm, rain chances at 20%.
Here is the Storm Predicition Center Day 2 Outlook, small portions of our area under a slight risk (level 2 of 5) and marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Main concerns for SW Arkansas are large hail and an isolated tornado.
Tuesday – 4/12
An isolated severe threat remains for the Arklamiss for Tuesday. Winds will remain strong out of the south with ample moisture back in the region. Dewpoints will likely sit between 60-70 degrees. Other favorable ingredients line up for Tuesday as well. However, there are some limitations for storms getting started Tuesday afternoon. A large thunderstorm “cap” or “lid” will sit over the region Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. If we can break the cap, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could be possible. The hail and isolated tornado threat exists in this scenario, as well as potential for damaging winds.
Timing on Tuesday favors the late afternoon with some activity continuing into the evening. However, scattered activity can occur through much of the day on Tuesday.
The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a slight risk, level 2 of 5. Activity is highly dependent on breaking through the thunderstorm cap on Tuesday. Which is why the threat remains at the slight risk, at least as of now. We could see some developments through the next 24-36 hours.
Wednesday – 4/13
Wednesday is something to watch closely over the next few days. In the Storm Prediction Center Day 4 Outlook, our area remains under the 30% or greater threat. This essentially means there is higher confidence for seeing severe weather. However, in similar fashion to Tuesday, the threat appears to be somewhat conditional. Details are still somewhat uncertain, to be quite frank. The consensus remains that severe weather is possible, but there are some uncertainties.
The same weather regime from Monday and Tuesday will remain for Wednesday. Moist and warm conditions will be in place. A shortwave in the upper level pattern looks to move along a cold front through our area. Activity ahead of the cold front, in the afternoon and evening, will be of the greatest concern for severe potential. More details to come tomorrow.