WEST MONROE, La. — (1/30/2023) Widespread showers lead to a very soggy week across the ArkLaMiss. However, as a front brings colder air into the region tonight, there is potential for some rain to change to freezing rain. Winter Weather Advisories are now issued for parts of southern Arkansas, where light accumulations will be possible on elevated surfaces.
Tonight through early Tuesday
A cold front is moving through the ArkLaMiss this afternoon, bringing a secondary shot of shallow, cold air to the area. An upper level system to our west will continue to provide overrunning moisture overnight through early tomorrow. Patchy drizzle and light rain can be expected as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s. Our far northern areas, mainly north of Highway 278, could see light freezing rain as temperatures drop to near freezing.
Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday
Widespread showers will move back into the area, aided by a new upper level disturbance, as we move through Tuesday afternoon. Across southern Arkansas, temperatures will continue to hover very close to the freezing mark… close enough that areas of freezing rain can be expected. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of southern Arkansas, with possible ice accumulations of up to 0.1″. Most ice accumulations should be expected on elevated surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses, possibly leading to limited travel impacts.
The bigger questions in the forecast reside farther southward across northern Louisiana. The latest computer models suggest that the shallow cold air may be strong enough to nudge to near the I-20 corridor. If this scenario happens, areas of freezing rain could develop in northern Louisiana tomorrow night. For now, our forecast keeps most of these areas in a very cold rain, with temperatures in the mid-30s.
Wednesday through early Thursday
As an area of low pressure develops at the surface and our upper level system starts to progress eastward, more rain is expected through the day on Wednesday. By then, our surface low should pull enough warm air in to keep all precipitation as rainfall. However, some heavier downpours should be expected.
Given the saturated ground in place, periods of heavy rain could lead to some localized street/flash flooding concerns. Over the next few days, an additional 1-3″ of rain will be possible. An Areal Flood Watch has also been issued, given the waves of rainfall that should be expected through midday Thursday.
This is a very complex forecast, and changes should be expected over the next 24-48 hours.