Thursday, March 03, 2016 Update:
Strong to Severe storms and heavy rain will be likely next week. Computer models continue to become more consistent regarding these threats. Two long-range models are in decent agreement that heavy rain and thunderstorms will develop by Tuesday. We could see a heavy rainfall/storm threat lasting through Thursday/Friday.
Upper-level trough will carve out of the western US early next week. A prolonged southwest flow will send disturbances and moisture directly over the region beginning Tuesday. Eventually this set up may lead to a cut-off low by Thursday/Friday. Cut-off lows are tricky to forecast even a day out, but especially when trying to forecast them a week in advance. These lows are dynamic and placement is key in determining what type of weather we could see later in the week. Quieter weather is set to move in perhaps late Friday or early Saturday (clearing a tough call at this point).
The severe weather threats are difficult to pinpoint at this time. Best timing will be from TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the region in their Day 6 Outlook. Confidence is growing in regards to heavy rainfall next week. Both GFS and ECMWF show several inches of rain piling up from Tuesday-Friday. (See Attached Photos)
This will most certainly be a weather pattern to watch. There are a lot of moving parts for next week’s weather. As of right now, my biggest concern will be from prolonged rain. Severe weather threats will become clearer as we move through the weekend. Please keep an up to date with the latest weather forecast.