WEST MONROE, La. — (4/21/2021) A strong upper-level disturbance and subsequent frontal system will bring widespread, heavy rain back into the ArkLaMiss starting Friday afternoon. A threat for severe storms could also develop later in the day.
Cloud cover will increase quickly Thursday night into Friday ahead of an advancing upper-level trough. As a surface low develops and moves eastward Friday, showers and storms are expected to develop across much of Texas. The placement of mesoscale features in the atmosphere, such as the warm front and surface low, will ultimately dictate the overall severe threat in our area.
All modes of severe weather will be possible, including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. These threats will be greatest in an overlapping area of strong low-level winds and available instability. As the night progresses, the severe threat is likely to diminish as ingredients for storm development become more scarce. Depending on early storm development Friday afternoon, the warm front could also stall, further limiting severe storm potential. Needless to say, the forecast remains complicated, and residents should stay alert as some of the smaller details become clearer over the coming days.
Regardless of severe weather potential, periods of heavy rainfall appear likely with any storm development late Friday into early Saturday. While many storms may not be severe, most of them will be capable of producing periods of torrential rain that could lead to flash flooding. Ultimately, much of the region should see 2-4″ of rain through early Saturday afternoon.
This forecast will continue to changes as this new system continues to develop. Residents should stay updated with the latest forecast information through the rest of the week.