WEST MONROE, La. (KTVE/KARD) — NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook, which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30, calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).
As of now, this season has only produced three named storms, none of which were hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. For reference, an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of the storms becoming hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
NOAA forecasters have decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% which is slightly lower than the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance. The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.
Keep in mind that this outlook is for overall seasonal activity, not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely governed by short-term weather patterns that are currently only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.
“Although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual and we therefore cannot afford to let our guard down…This is especially important as we enter peak hurricane season—the next Ida or Sandy could still be lying in wait.”FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell