WEST MONROE, La. (KTVE/KARD) — A massive section of a Chinese rocket will crash back to earth sometime tomorrow, July 30th. It’s difficult to determine when and where the debris will land at this time.

The debris is part of the Long March 5B rocket, the particular section that is predicted to crash is the core, which clocks in at about 25 tons. According to The Aerospace Cooperation, the estimated reentry time is around 2 pm. plus or minus 5 hours. Thankfully, most of the debris should burn upon reentry. Large chunks could remain weighing up to 5-10 tons, according to The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies. The debris has spent less than a week in earth’s orbit, the rocket launch took place on July 24, 2022, from the Wenchang Space Launch Site.

It’s difficult to pinpoint a reentry time, the rocket body is zooming around the earth at roughly 17,000 mph. So, a miscalculation of up to an hour equals a 17,000-mile error of where the crash site could be. Scientists can make educated guesses based on geography alone on where the debris will land. The earth is 70% water, so it’s likely that it’ll land in the ocean.

The current track of the rocket body and reentry prediction:

Image
Yellow Icon – location of the object at the midpoint of the reentry window
Orange Line – an area of visibility at the predicted reentry time for a ground observer 
Blue Line – ground track uncertainty prior to the middle of the reentry window
Yellow Line – ground track uncertainty after the middle of the reentry window
White Line – day/night divider at the middle of the reentry window

Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.  Areas not under the line are not exposed to the debris, according to The Aerospace Cooperation.

There is no need to panic about it, but feel free to express your concern and annoyance that we have to worry at all.