Strong/Severe storms will be possible late Saturday evening, perhaps into the overnight. Exact timing is still uncertain, considering thunderstorms have not yet formed across much of the South. As of Saturday morning, it looks like all modes of severe weather will be possible. According to the Storm Prediction Center, parts of the ArkLaMiss are under a Slight Risk for severe weather. The main threats for our viewing area would be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes (see image).
Nailing down a specific convective mode for Saturday night has been difficult; but, I would venture to say that a squall line appears unlikely given how most models bring the cold front in, with the temperature gradient, well behind the convection. This would leave discreet supercells and multicell complexes a possibility at least early on. Will be able to have a better idea on convective mode & timing later today.
Regardless of severe weather chances, heavy rain looks likely for our area. Expect rain amounts between 0.50" & 1.50", locally heavier amounts possible, especially for our northwest zones (near southwest Arkansas)
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