Tropics Outlook 9-19-2014

Tropics Outlook 9-19-2014

Edouard continues to weaken in the Atlantic. T-storms fire in the Gulf.
MONROE / EL DORADO -- Tropical Storm Edouard continues to weaken on Friday far out in the Atlantic Ocean. Still no threat to us.

Here's what has caught my attention. Thunderstorms are firing in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, with especially heavy rains near Florida.

At the time, it appears these thunderstorms are associated with a broad area of low pressure in the Gulf. On satellite, there is no indication of any remotely defined surface center of circulation associated with this feature. Even though warm Gulf waters (86°) could favor possible development with this area of low pressure, nearby strong northwesterly wind shear should keep conditions rather unfavorable for development with this feature.

Nevertheless, the RPM model does try to develop this low pressure in the Gulf, with one portion pulling away up the northeast coast and later intensifying, and the other portion lagging behind in the Gulf and not intensifying. In this scenario, the stronger low pressure traveling up the east coast pulls the weaker Gulf low to the east and northeast by Sunday. For what it's worth, several other computer models also develop and intensify low pressure heading up the east coast into early next week. But these models keep the Gulf low weak.

Bottom line: The chances for tropical development in the Gulf over the next few days appear low at best. Not seeing any threats (for north LA / south AR) with this thanks to a ridge of high pressure that should block most northwest movement of this feature. But, folks in Florida and perhaps along the Atlantic coast (Georgia, South Carolina) could be dealing with some heavy rains over the weekend from this.

Otherwise, there are no significant tropical threats to the Gulf Coast for the next five days. Keep in mind, hurricane season continues through November 30th.

You can get the latest official info from the National Hurricane Center.
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