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Tropics Outlook 7-29-2014

A tropical disturbance located in the Atlantic Ocean could become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next few days.
Visibile Satellite imagery of Invest 93L from Tuesday morning. (Courtesy: NOAA)
Visibile Satellite imagery of Invest 93L from Tuesday morning. (Courtesy: NOAA)
MONROE / EL DORADO --  Despite quite a bit of moderate to strong wind shear, the tropical disturbance (now being called Invest 93L) continues to show a decent development of thunderstorm activity surrounding its better defined center of circulation.

The surface center of circulation is tough to identify on the visible satellite imagery from Tuesday morning (which located the disturbance at about ... or roughly 1600 miles east of the Windward Islands). But, it does appear apparent that the disturbance is strengthening as it continues its westward movement at about 20 mph with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

It's looking more and more likely that we'll be seeing this become a tropical depression and perhaps tropical storm (Bertha) within the next day or so. The National Hurricane Center gives it a high chance (70%) of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours from Tuesday morning.

Will it enter the Gulf? Based on what the models are saying right now, it seems more likely that it will not. But, it's still too early to tell; luckily, time is on our side. This disturbance will probably not reach the Lesser Antilles (and/or the Caribbean Sea) until this weekend. And then most models curve the disturbance to the northwest as it approaches Puerto Rico.

We will continue to monitor and will update should the disturbance become a concern to the Gulf Coast.

You can get the latest official info from the National Hurricane Center.
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