Severe Weather Threat April 27 - 29

- 1:30pm Update: Sunday's outlook remains unchanged with the latest update. Significant severe weather is expected with several tornadoes possible.

-Chief Meteorologist Jarod Floyd

2:10am Update: The *Moderate Risk* has been expanded eastward and southward to include the northwestern half of the viewing area. An upgrade to *High Risk* may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Please be weather ready as we head into Sunday!

-Chief Meteorologist Jarod Floyd

10:30pm Update:
The upper system moves east into the western U.S. and low pressure develops across the Rocky Mountain region on Friday night.

As we continue to track the approaching storm system, it appears that there is little chance for the forecast to call for any lessening in expected intensity of Sunday's storms. That means that the possibility still remains for damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and some localized flooding.

The latest forecast model info is hinting at the strongest storms occurring on Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunday into Sunday night could very well be the most significant timeframe for severe weather across south Arkansas and north Louisiana out of the multi-day outbreak. The models rather consistently forecast large amounts of instability and atmospheric turbulence during this timeframe; it's highly likely that the thunderstorms that cross our area on Sunday into Sunday night will produce the most significant severe weather.

That being said, Monday and perhaps Tuesday will both pose their own severe weather threats if the upper system should move through slowly enough. As mentioned before, have a plan in place and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts so that you can be prepared for any storms and warnings that come your way.

The next update from the Storm Prediction Center will come around 1:00am. We will pass along the latest information when it becomes available.

-Meteorologist Wesley Williams

Severe Weather Threat- April 27th-29th, 2014 

A multi-day severe weather event looks likely for our area beginning Sunday.  Damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and tornadoes (some strong) will be possible. As of Friday, the greatest potential for severe weather will come on Sunday afternoon, but our storm system could impact us well into Tuesday bringing us several rounds of severe weather. Storm Prediction Center has highlighted western parts of the ArkLaMiss under a MODERATE RISK on Sunday. Day Four(Monday) and Five (Tuesday) Outlook’s highlight the entire ArkLaMiss under SLIGHT RISK. *See photos for more detail*

Synopsis: Trough will carve out over the western U.S. Saturday and track eastward. Ahead of this storm system moisture and winds will increase. Instability will grow throughout Saturday, settling in by Sunday afternoon. Surface features like a dry line and a cold front will ignite storms. Higher in the atmosphere, our trough/Low will drive impulses into the region at could enhance activity. Placement of the features each day will determine the best locations for storms. As you can tell, this will be a tricky forecast going into the event.

-Meteorologist Kayleigh Klaustermeier

Sunday Afternoon/Night through Monday Morning

A dry line surging out of west Texas will be the focus for severe thunderstorms beginning as early as Sunday morning in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Those storms will continue eastward through much of the day on Sunday. As the dry line enters east Texas by Sunday afternoon, there will be the potential for supercell storms to develop across the ArkLaMiss late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Regionally, exceedingly high atmospheric instability and wind shear values will cause many storms to become severe. All modes of severe weather (damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes) will be expected with any severe storms that can develop.

Again, given the excessively high severe weather parameters, significant severe weather events will also be possible... including the risk for strong tornadoes. These storms are expected to eventually evolve into a line of severe storms that will increase the damaging wind and flash flood threat through early Monday morning.

Monday Afternoon/Night

Another strong impulse of energy will move along our cold front/dry line, which is expected to stall early Monday across parts of the area. By this time, the atmosphere will likely be able to recover the high instability and wind shear values from storms earlier in the day. Monday's severe weather potential is a little more uncertain because of questions surrounding the placement of the cold front by Monday afternoon. However, most of the area (especially areas closer to the Mississippi River) will likely see another threat for severe storms. Again, all modes of severe weather will be likely, and some significant severe weather events are also possible.

Storms should end across the area late Monday night/early Tuesday morning as the front advances to the south and east of the area. That being said, the end of severe weather activity is conditional on the front moving passed our area.

What Can You Do?

As always, we encourage everyone to revisit their severe weather preparedness plan with their family in the days prior to a severe weather event. Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is programmed correctly, and has fresh batteries. Have at least three ways of receiving severe weather alerts. Also, keep in mind that weather forecasts (especially severe weather forecasts) can and will change over the next few days. Monitor the latest forecasts and stay up to date with current weather information. We will continue to update you on this severe weather threat on air, online, and through social media as the weekend progresses.

-Chief Meteorologist Jarod Floyd

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